When you first joined Snapchat, do you remember…

…when you had to redo your snap 3 times because you kept speaking too soon?
…when you looked like a ghost because you didn’t know the white screen was recording?
…when you accidently posted a private snap to your story?
…when you felt like a creep because someone asked you why you screenshot their snap?
…when you stopped lip syncing because you got annoyed when you saw it from others?
…when you wanted to delete a snap but half yo peeps already seen it and you couldn’t decide which pain was worse: the other half of yo peeps see the snap or the first half knowing that you know that they know that you deleted it?

If you’re guilty of any points above, you’re a true snapper!

I remember the first day I got on Snapchat. My friend Shelby put me on it and I felt soooo uncomfortable because it was encouraging me to post things I’d never post on Facebook or Instagram.

Eventually, I absolutely loved it! It was an outlet for me to express things that were too petty to go on Facebook but interesting enough for me to share.

I remember the excitement I had when I sold all my friends to get on it, but now it breaks my heart to see Snapchat being stoned to death.

My friend Hao asked me the other day “Anh, which company do you think is a better investment: Snapchat or Facebook?”

I got mad defensive and said “you can’t compare them, it’s not fair for Snapchat”.

I was emotionally offended by that because I really want Snapchat to win. They deserve it.

I couldn’t stop thinking about his question and decided to dig for the facts.

Here are the 5 biggest indicators of why it could be the end for Snapchat:

1. SNAP stock fell 53% since its initial IPO

It’s not uncommon for stock prices to drop immediately after an IPO. As a matter of fact, Facebook dropped as low as 47% just 68 days after their IPO.

So what’s the difference?

Well Facebook reported a net income of $1 billion at 2011 year end right before their IPO in 2012.

Snapchat reported a net loss of $2.2 billion in the first quarter of 2017. Even if you exclude Evan’s bonus of $750 million for going public, thats STILL a $1.4 billion dollar loss in 3 months.

I ain’t no wall street analyst, but that’s not a good look…

2. Snapchat’s Daily Active User growth is less than 10% for the past 4 quarters

SnapChat DAU = 173 million

Instagram Stories DAU = 250 million

Instagram All DAU = 700 million

Snapchat’s DAU growth in the last 4 quarters was:

Q3’16 = 7% growth
Q4’16 = 3.2% growth
Q1’17 = 5% growth
Q2’17 = 4% growth

Daily Active Users (DAU) isn’t the only indicator of a growing investment, but it is a very important indicator investors look at when predicting their return on investment.

What scares me isn’t that instagram stories DAU offically surpassed Snapchat’s DAU. What really scares me is that Instagram’s total DAU is 700 million.

What this means is they can easily grow their IG stories DAU by tapping into the total IG DAU through optimization of user experience. Scaryyyyyy.

3. Top 3 Executives sold $9.3 million worth of shares at first chance

When Snapchat had their IPO in March 2017, the two cofounders sold shares for $16 million each. However, all employees who owned any stock was restricted to sell any stock until just last week.

Immediately after the restriction was lifted, the SVP of Engineering, Chief Financial Officer, and Chief Strategy Officer sold shares worth $9.3 million at the first opportunity they got.

Although it was less than 10% of their total shares, the question still stands…

“why would you sell shares when it’s at the lowest it’s ever been?”

4. Facebook has a major chip lead

The reason why it was tough for me to answer my friends answer earlier about whether Facebook or Snapchat was a better invest was because they’re not even playing in the same playground.

If all the social media companies were in a poker game, Facebook would have a MAJOR chip lead.

For those who don’t understand the poker reference, having a chip lead in game gives you serious advantages. It doesn’t guarantee they’ll win.

However, they can make moves like playing higher risk hands, playing more hands to the flop, force pressure on other players by making it expensive for them to even play, and many more.

So how does Facebook do this?

In the recent Q2’17 report, Facebook reported $29 billion in cash and Snapchat reported $500 million in cash.

There are many numbers to pay attention to when evaluating a company. One of my favorites to look at is cash and cash equivalents.

Cash and Cash Equivalents = RUBBERBAND DUFFLE BAG MONEY

This number gives you an idea of how liquid a company is. The more liquid they are, the more adaptable and agile they are to major decisions and market changes.

Another reason why it’s not a fair fight is because Facebook has 63 mergers and acquisitions while Snapchat only has 4 (Snapchat, Spectacles, Bitmoji, Zenly).

Why does this matter?

Facebook has wayyyyy more resources, streams of income, people, technology, and power.

That’s like fighting a war and your opponent has 3 dragons……………….. 😳

5. Instagram has a bigger older brother called WhatsApp

Each day Instagram and SnapChat are fighting to win in DAU with Instagram in the lead at 250 million Daily Active Users.

Meanwhile, WhatsApp is chillen at 1 billion DAU in app and 250 million daily users active in WhatsApp stories.

It’s not even a fair match…

With WhatsApp on Instagram’s side, Snapchat doesn’t stand a chance.

Not to mention the 61 other companies that Facebook has swallowed whole.

What would you do?

My heart is really rooting for Snapchat to make a major comeback. They’ve brought something unique, original, and valuable to the world with a different way to socialize.

Some say Snapchat would become the next Twitter. I’ll have to disagree with this one.

Twitter lost it’s flame because they failed to innovate.

Snapchat is still innovating but I believe they’re also being bullied.

But this ain’t a playground. There’s no referee to save you from low blows. This is business.

We won’t see how this fight plays out until years from now, but it’s something worth paying attention to.

There has also been talks of Google offering to purchase Snapchat for $30 billion.

This could be hearsay or huuuuuuuuuge!

If you were Snapchat right now, what would you do?